QE2 Quantitative Easing $600Bn
It was virtually inconceivable that the US Federal Reserve would not launch a new round of quantitative easing — nicknamed QE2 — on Wednesday.
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The central bank had thoroughly prepared the ground for the monetary stimulus, with Ben Bernanke, its chairman, talking of “a case for further action”, and William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, saying: “The current situation is wholly unsatisfactory.”
Equity prices had rallied, expectations of future inflation had risen and the dollar had fallen in expectation of QE2. Inaction by the Fed would have risked a sudden reversal of these moves and a catastrophic loss of market confidence.
But the Fed still had decisions to make. It had to decide how much to buy “up front”; it had to decide how fast to buy assets. Most crucial of all, it had to decide what to signal to markets about how big QE2 could eventually become.
It chose to announce an initial $600bn, bought at a speed of about $75bn a month, with no explicit signal about whether it is more likely to increase or decrease the target total.
The $600bn by the end of the second quarter of 2011 means that the Fed has leaned towards giving the markets certainty about the path of purchases. It is not “shock and awe”, such as the huge purchases announced during the financial crisis, but it is also a long way from a totally conditional, meeting-by-meeting approach.
The speed is a little more cautious than estimates that the Fed could buy between $80 and $100bn a month. That may partly reflect the $35bn a month that the New York Fed now thinks it will need to buy to reinvest early repayments from the Fed’s portfolio of mortgage-backed securities.
Total purchases per month will, therefore, be about $110bn, and the Fed made clear it would review the speed of the programme. If could speed up or slow down purchases to reflect conditions in the bond market and the rate of mortgage repayments.
But the biggest surprise is that the Fed has not chosen to signal any bias towards increasing the size of QE2 once the initial round of $600bn in purchases is complete. It simply said that it would review QE2 “in light of incoming information and will adjust the programme as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability”.
From the point of view of Fed officials, that is the correct balance between leaving the door open for further purchases and making sure that any decision to expand asset purchases is truly conditional on the incoming economic data.
The Fed is willing to do more, and the lack of forward guidance is not meant as a signal that QE2 will end at $600bn. But the Fed will adjust the size of the programme only if the economic outlook suggests that it is necessary once the $600bn has been absorbed.
Fed officials think $600bn should make a meaningful difference to the economic outlook. But the Fed says in its statement: “[It] will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.”
In particular, a number of Fed officials want to see unemployment continue to decline from its current level of 9.6 per cent, and they want to see forecasts of inflation rising back towards their objective of “about 2 per cent or a bit below”.
Based on past statements by Fed officials, a $600bn move is equivalent to a shift of about 75 basis points in the federal funds rate.
If the bank does change the amount in the future, it is likely to do so only in relatively large increments and not a few tens of billions here or there.
Individual Fed officials are likely to elaborate on the conditions under which they might want to increase or decrease the size of QE2 in speeches once the committee comes out of “blackout” next Monday.
The Fed also avoided two other possible changes it could have made to policy. It continued to pledge that interest rates were likely to remain at “exceptionally low levels” for an “extended period”. It also chose not to increase massively the duration of its asset purchases by buying a lot of Treasury bonds with 20 or 30 years to maturity.



